The story of the season….so far at least

With a third of the season in the books, I figured it was time to take a look and see how the league has been doing statistically.

After Week 5, the league was scoring higher than last year. However, Week 6 balanced out the scores for Flights 2 and 3. Flight 1 is still lagging behind 2015 by over half a stroke per nine.

Average Rounds for Each Golfer:

The below table takes your average round and determines the chances of you for scoring an eagle, birdie, par, etc. on any given hole. When you add up the chances for scoring a particular score on a hole, you have an average round score. Compare that to your Average Quota to see what your average performance is. Take Brian Thompson. He’s averaging scoring 13.2 pts per round, but his quota average is 12.5. So on average, he’s +.7.

Eagle % Birdie % Par % Bogey % No Pts % Dble Par % Avg Round Points Avg Quota Avg Perf
Flight 1 Brian Thompson 0.0% 9.3% 33.3% 42.6% 14.8% 0.0% 13.2 12.5 0.7
Dick Donegan 0.0% 7.4% 29.6% 44.4% 18.5% 0.0% 12.0 11.7 0.3
Steve Donegan 1.9% 3.7% 25.9% 42.6% 25.9% 1.9% 11.0 10.6 0.4
Craig Hawkinson 0.0% 3.7% 44.4% 33.3% 18.5% 1.9% 12.5 12.4 0.1
Pat Donahue 0.0% 11.1% 33.3% 40.0% 15.6% 0.0% 13.6 13.4 0.2
Devin Carrigan 1.9% 9.3% 44.4% 35.2% 9.3% 0.0% 15.5 14.9 0.6
TJ Donegan 0.0% 6.7% 37.8% 40.0% 15.6% 0.0% 12.8 12.0 0.8
Jon Carroll 0.0% 1.9% 31.5% 46.3% 20.4% 0.0% 10.5 11.3 (0.8)
Connor Brown 0.0% 7.4% 48.1% 31.5% 13.0% 0.0% 14.2 15.1 (0.9)
Vinny Procopio 0.0% 0.0% 28.9% 48.9% 22.2% 2.2% 9.8 11.0 (1.2)
Mike Carroll 0.0% 9.3% 33.3% 27.8% 29.6% 3.7% 12.2 11.1 1.1
Nick Wight 0.0% 7.4% 35.2% 42.6% 14.8% 0.0% 12.8 12.9 (0.1)
Flight 2 Rick Fanto 0.0% 3.7% 20.4% 33.3% 42.6% 0.0% 8.0 9.1 (1.1)
Dan Mahar 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 42.6% 44.4% 0.0% 6.2 6.8 (0.6)
Jack Donegan 0.0% 7.4% 29.6% 40.7% 22.2% 0.0% 11.7 11.0 0.7
Marty Donegan 0.0% 3.7% 18.5% 40.7% 37.0% 5.6% 8.8 8.7 0.1
Mike Burns 0.0% 1.9% 29.6% 33.3% 35.2% 1.9% 9.2 8.8 0.4
Bill John 0.0% 3.7% 24.1% 38.9% 33.3% 1.9% 9.3 9.9 (0.6)
Tom Phillips 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 37.0% 40.7% 0.0% 7.3 12.0 (4.7)
Dale Russell 0.0% 0.0% 35.2% 48.1% 16.7% 1.9% 10.8 11.0 (0.2)
Drew Prucha 0.0% 4.4% 37.8% 31.1% 26.7% 0.0% 11.2 10.9 0.3
Chris Donegan 0.0% 0.0% 31.5% 50.0% 18.5% 1.9% 10.3 11.0 (0.7)
DJ Mahar 0.0% 3.7% 18.5% 42.6% 35.2% 1.9% 8.7 8.9 (0.2)
Matt Lochner 0.0% 0.0% 29.6% 48.1% 22.2% 3.7% 10.0 11.0 (1.0)
Flight 3 Bob Zaleski 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 33.3% 59.3% 14.8% 5.7 2.8 2.9
Tom Donegan 0.0% 1.9% 14.8% 46.3% 37.0% 5.6% 8.0 7.3 0.7
Tony Massa 0.0% 1.9% 14.8% 42.6% 40.7% 7.4% 7.8 6.8 1.0
Joe Donegan 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 40.7% 37.0% 7.4% 8.3 7.6 0.7
Art Brillanti 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44.4% 55.6% 18.5% 5.7 6.0 (0.3)
Bob Moran 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 18.5% 70.4% 7.4% 4.3 6.0 (1.7)
Denny Welch 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 38.9% 46.3% 3.7% 6.5 7.9 (1.4)
Gary Thompson 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% 33.3% 47.2% 8.3% 7.3 5.4 1.9
Bill Kirkby 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 18.5% 72.2% 9.3% 4.2 3.7 0.5
Gary Antos 2.2% 0.0% 17.8% 40.0% 40.0% 2.2% 8.2 8.0 0.2
Jim Morgan 0.0% 2.2% 20.0% 35.6% 42.2% 2.2% 7.8 8.0 (0.2)
Pat Cregg 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 28.9% 51.1% 6.7% 6.8 6.5 0.3

 

Unluckiest/Luckiest Golfers:

This chart measures how lucky/unlucky a golfer is based on their opponents performance. The “Buzzsaw 5” ranks those who are the unluckiest while the “Lucky 5” ranks those who are the luckiest. The “Total” column is just a sum of how your opponents have performed vs. their quotas. As it stands, Pat Cregg is the unluckiest golfer with his opponents shooting +13. Marty Donegan is the luckiest golfer in the league (“Lucky 5” column) with his opponents shooting -26 against him.

Opp performance 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Buzzsaw 5 Lucky 5
Flight 1 Brian Thompson -6 -1 -3 -7 -3 7 -13 33 4
Dick Donegan -2 -1 -5 -4 2 8 -2 12 22
Steve Donegan 2 -1 -9 -2 -2 1 -11 28 8
Craig Hawkinson -2 4 1 -4 0 3 2 6 30
Pat Donahue 1 0 DNP -3 1 3 2 6 30
Devin Carrigan 2 0 -5 2 1 8 8 2 35
TJ Donegan -2 -5 -5 -8 DNP 0 -20 35 2
Jon Carroll -6 1 0 -4 -3 5 -7 22 13
Connor Brown -2 0 -4 -1 -2 3 -6 19 16
Vinny Procopio 1 -6 3 -3 3 DNP -2 12 22
Mike Carroll -3 1 -4 -4 3 2 -5 17 19
Nick Wight 3 -1 -1 0 -2 2 1 8 28
Flight 2 Rick Fanto -5 -1 -2 -9 7 3 -7 22 13
Dan Mahar -8 -2 -2 -3 4 6 -5 17 19
Jack Donegan DNP DNP DNP 2 -2 5 5 3 33
Marty Donegan -4 -1 -7 -9 -4 -1 -26 36 1
Mike Burns -1 3 3 -2 -3 5 5 3 33
Bill John -4 3 -1 -3 -6 4 -7 22 13
Tom Phillips -3 DNP 5 -1 DNP DNP 1 8 28
Dale Russell -5 0 -3 1 1 0 -6 19 16
Drew Prucha DNP -1 -1 -5 1 0 -6 19 16
Chris Donegan -3 -1 -2 3 -4 -1 -8 25 11
DJ Mahar -1 -4 -3 -6 -1 3 -12 30 5
Matt Lochner -3 -1 -2 1 -1 6 0 10 27
Flight 3 Bob Zaleski 1 -1 -5 -3 2 -4 -10 27 10
Tom Donegan -2 -3 1 1 -2 -3 -8 25 11
Tony Massa 3 -2 -1 -6 -6 0 -12 30 5
Joe Donegan -4 0 -2 -6 6 3 -3 16 21
Art Brillanti -2 DNP 1 DNP DNP -1 -2 12 22
Bob Moran DNP DNP DNP -4 1 1 -2 12 22
Denny Welch -6 4 -3 1 -7 0 -11 28 8
Gary Thompson -1 DNP -4 -1 5 DNP -1 11 26
Bill Kirkby 4 0 -9 -3 -4 0 -12 30 5
Gary Antos 0 DNP 3 -5 0 6 4 5 32
Jim Morgan -1 -3 -3 -7 DNP -2 -16 34 3
Pat Cregg 2 5 DNP 5 7 -6 13 1 36

 

Over/Under performing Golfers:

This table looks at how well you are doing vs your quota. The Over column ranks those who are Over performing vs. their quota. The Under column ranks those who are under performing vs. their quota. This one is somewhat shocking. Only 25% have outperformed their quotas over the course of 6 weeks. For reference, the aim is to get about 50% of the league at or above their quota. Only one golfer in Flight 3 has outperformed their quota (Tom Donegan at +3).

Looking at the unlucky/lucky and the over/under performing tables, you can pretty much get an idea of where a player deserves to be in the standings. Both tables give you an idea how a golfer’s opponents played and how the golfer played. TJ Donegan is sitting at the top of the Player rankings and his team is only a point off the lead. Looking at both tables, its easy to see why. While the league is struggling to get above their quotas, TJ is +4 to his quota ranking him first in the league. TJ is also getting extremely lucky as his opponents are -20 against their quota. That is a great recipe for an amazing start. TJ is both scoring well and having his opponents shoot poorly.

While TJ is playing well, DJ Mahar is the most under performing golfer at -17 and is in first place with a record of 3-3. The devil’s in the details with DJ: He’s had two rounds of -9 and he’s pretty lucky that his opponents are -12 against their quota.

Player Performance 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Over Under
Flight 1 Brian Thompson 3 -1 -2 -4 -4 8 0 8 28
Dick Donegan 2 -1 -5 0 -2 3 -3 14 21
Steve Donegan -2 4 -1 -3 -2 0 -4 17 18
Craig Hawkinson 1 -1 -4 2 -1 -1 -4 17 18
Pat Donahue -2 0 DNP -2 1 2 -1 10 25
Devin Carrigan -2 0 -1 -4 -3 7 -3 14 21
TJ Donegan 2 1 1 -1 DNP 1 4 1 36
Jon Carroll -2 -5 -7 -3 7 2 -8 23 11
Connor Brown -6 -6 -3 -8 7 8 -8 23 11
Vinny Procopio -3 0 -2 -4 -7 DNP -16 35 2
Mike Carroll 1 -1 -1 -7 6 3 1 7 30
Nick Wight -6 1 3 -4 1 5 0 8 28
Flight 2 Rick Fanto -3 -2 1 -6 -2 4 -8 23 11
Dan Mahar 0 -1 -3 1 -6 0 -9 27 9
Jack Donegan DNP DNP DNP -2 2 2 2 4 31
Marty Donegan -1 -1 0 -3 -4 -1 -10 29 8
Mike Burns -4 3 -3 2 1 3 2 4 31
Bill John -3 3 -9 -9 3 3 -12 32 4
Tom Phillips -4 DNP -5 -5 DNP DNP -14 34 3
Dale Russell -2 0 -2 3 -2 6 3 2 34
Drew Prucha DNP -1 -4 -1 2 6 2 4 31
Chris Donegan -1 -1 -3 1 -1 -1 -6 20 16
DJ Mahar -3 -1 -9 -9 0 5 -17 36 1
Matt Lochner -5 -4 3 -3 5 0 -4 17 18
Flight 3 Bob Zaleski 2 -3 -5 -7 1 1 -11 30 6
Tom Donegan 3 -1 -2 5 -2 0 3 2 34
Tony Massa -2 0 -5 -5 4 0 -8 23 11
Joe Donegan -2 -2 -3 -4 3 6 -2 13 24
Art Brillanti -4 DNP -5 DNP DNP -2 -11 30 6
Bob Moran DNP DNP DNP -6 1 -4 -9 27 9
Denny Welch -4 -5 3 -3 3 0 -6 20 16
Gary Thompson 4 DNP 1 -5 -1 DNP -1 10 25
Bill Kirkby -1 -3 -3 1 -3 -3 -12 32 4
Gary Antos -1 DNP -1 -1 -1 3 -1 10 25
Jim Morgan 0 5 -4 -3 DNP -1 -3 14 21
Pat Cregg 1 -3 DNP 1 -3 -3 -7 22 15