As we cross the 2/3rd’s marker for the 2018 season, I wanted to take a look at the teams and put together a story for each one: How did each team end up on where they are on the standings? I’ll start at the bottom and work my way up to the leaders.

• Chris/Marty/RAUUSSSSS (37 pts behind)

  • Chris is a Top 5 Under Performer vs. his quota (-10 vs quota) and is Top 10 in Unlucky Golfers (opponents +4 vs quota).
  • As bad as Chris’s numbers are, Marty’s are a worse combination. Top 10 Under Performer vs. his quota (-9 vs quota) and Top 5 Unlucky Golfer (opponents +10 vs quota)
  • The hits keep coming with Jeff “Ricky” Raus. To his credit, first years are historically tough for newcomers given there is little known about their capabilities. Jeff is the #1 Under Performer (-20 vs quota, second is -12), but middle of the road in terms of lucky/unlucky.

• steve/prucha/massa (20.5 pts behind)

  • Steve has had some bad luck (11th Unlucky Golfer) and is shooting middle of the road vs his quota. Steve’s story is told by the margins of victory. He’s lost the most matches by 1 pt (5) and near the top in  2 pt defeats (3). Every point matters!! Also, Steve is one of two TBO Golfers yet to win a skin this year.
  •  Prucha is a Top 10 Over Performer vs quota (#7, +8 vs quota), but he is the second Unlucky Golfer (opponents are +13 vs quota). Unlike Steve, Drew has good numbers when it comes to close matches.
  • Tony is middle of the road when it comes to his performance. That being said, Tony might have missed an opportunity to have a much better record. He is the second Luckiest Golfer with his opponents shooting -21 vs their quota. Tony has only had five opponents meet or exceed their quota and none of them did better than +1 vs quota.

• Devin/Shanahan/bobby moran (20 pts behind)

  • Where to start with Devin? Middle of the road in terms of lucky/unlucky, but the #1 golfer when it comes to performance (+14 vs quota). So how does he only have a .500 record? Devin is very much a black/white player. Either he crushes you (5 victories with margin of win 3 pts or greater) or you beat him. Devin wins big or he loses, period. The dangers of playing so well and your quota getting too high…
  • Shanny has a similar story to Devin: Crushes you or loses. Near the Top 10 for Luckiest Golfer, but that’s offset by a Top 10 in the Under Performer.
  • Bobby Mo has the dangerous combination of being Unlucky (#7 Unluckiest) and Under Performing (#2 Under Performer at -12 vs quota)

• mike carroll/jon carroll/mike mahar (17 pts behind)

  • Mike Carroll is middle of the road in terms of performance, but his story is really about what his opponents have done. He is the #1 Unluckiest Golfer with opponents shooting +21 vs. their quota (about +1.5 per week). To put that in a bit of context, the #5 Unluckiest Golfer has their opponents shooting +7….Three times “luckier”!!
  • Jon is ok on the lucky/unlucky measures and doing well in his performance vs. his quota for a Top 10 ranking (+7 vs. quota). What has been helping his unlucky teammate is that when Jon wins, he wins big. When he loses, he also doesn’t lose big.
  • Similar to Jon, Mike Mahar is middle on luck and #11 Over Performing golfer (+5 vs quota). Unlike Jon, Mike is a winner or loser to the extreme. Four wins by 3 or more points and four loses by 3 or more points.

• Pat donahue/bill john/cregger (14.5 pts behind)

  • Pat has had to overcome some bad luck (#6 Unluckiest), but has shot well as the #7 Over Performing golfer.
  • Oddly enough, Bill John is the #11 Unluckiest golfer and the #11 Under Performing golfer. Not a good combination, but could have been overcome had some of his one point losses (3) or ties (1) been turned into wins.
  • Every year it seems Cregger has bad luck….and this year is no different. Top 5 Unluckiest Golfer (opponents +7 vs quota), a slightly lower than desired performance. When Cregger loses, he loses big too…Five losses of 3 pts or more.

• Hawkinson/lochner/gary thompson (14.5 pts behind)

  • Hawk’s numbers are just ok in terms of luck and performance. The interesting note on Hawk is that he has 7 wins and they’ve all come at a margin of +2. No wins by one or 3 or more.
  • Lochner has a good bit of luck (#11 Luckiest), but his story is the Under Performance. Matt is the #2 Under Performing golfer scoring -12 vs. his quota. Lochner’s records having him doing one of three things every week: Winning big, a draw or losing big.
  • Gary has mid-pack performance numbers with a Top 10 Unlucky ranking. Like Lochner, Gary has a predictable match patter. Wins big or loses big, but no close matches or draws.

• Jack/Joey/Tom aka team donegan (12.5 pts behind)

  • Jack is benefiting from both a little bit a luck and good performance. He’s been good at minimizing the damage from losses with only one big loss
  • Joey, Joey Joey…Must be nice to be the Luckiest Golfer in TBO with opponents shooting -22 vs. their quota. That’s the story of Joe’s year so far. While Joey is in the bottom half of the league in terms of performance, his record is still impressive at 7-3-2. Joey is also tied for the league lead with six wins by 3 pts or more. Joey is the second TBO golfer yet to win a skin (Steve D is the other).
  • Tom’s had middle rankings for luck, but has been battling injury this season to limit his capabilities for his performance on the course. Also, Tom has helped his team by limiting the damage in his losses like Jack. Those crafty veterans…

• Connor/Fabulous fanto/sandbagger morgan (11.5 pts behind)

  • Connor performance is tied for top of the league with Devin at +14, but his record is curtailed by bad luck (#3 Unluckiest Golfer)
  • Rick hasn’t taken advantage of being the #6 Luckiest golfer by being the #11 Under Performing golfer. He also has 3 losses of 1 point, which could have really sprung him to the top of the table.
  • Jim neither lucky or unlucky, but he is having a down year. -10 vs his quota puts him in the Top 5 Under Performers

• Dale/dj mahar/mike burns (10.5 pts behind)

  • Dale has OK marks for luck, a little high on the Under Performing scale, but his story is in the margins for win/loss. Dale has two losses of 2 pts, two losses of 1 pt and 3 draws. If this team is going to make a run at the title, Dale has got to start turning those close losses and draws into wins.
  • DJ is in the Top 10 for Luck (#8) and Over Performance (#7) which is a good story. DJ’s story is similar to Dale’s: four losses of 1 point and a draw need to be turned into wins to make a run at the title
  • Burns is almost the exact same story as DJ. Top 10 for luck (#10), Top 5 for Over Performance (#4) with three loses of 1 point and a draw. Same again as DJ: Need to turn those to wins to make a run.

• Merritt daniels/dan mahar/Paul daniels (9 pts behind)

  • On paper, Merritt would look like he should be having a bad year with #9 bad luck and #4 Under Performance. But somehow, Merritt has scraped together a .500 record and has won his close matches. However, when he does lose, he loses big.
  • Dan Mahar is the leader on this team. A 9-4-0 record powered mostly by being the #4 Over Performing golfer with slightly better than average luck numbers. When Dan wins, he wins big with 7 of his wins coming by 2 pts or more.
  • Paul’s numbers are pretty average when it comes to luck and performance. The oddity with Paul’s numbers are that they are on the extremes. Five wins of 3 pts or more, five losses of 3 pts or more.

• TJ Donegan/mooney/bill kirkby (7 pts behind)

  • TJ is leading the charge on this team with a solid 9-3-1 record. The story of his season though is luck. #4 Luckiest golfer while at the same time being the #11 Under Performing golfer. With four wins by one point, two losses of 1 pt and a draw are the kinds of things that separate first and second place teams. Can he keep his luck going until the end of the year?
  • Mooney has similar numbers to TJ: #7 Luckiest Golfer and the #7 Under Performing golfer. Mooney’s margins of victory are more spread out, so he needs to keep his lucky streak going for a few more weeks or start to perform better vs his quota.
  • Bill K has good metrics on the luck (#11 luckiest) and ok numbers on his performance. Bill’s three wins by one point and two draws are extremely important.

• Dickie/denny/bobby zaleski (Leaders)

Before getting into this team in detail, it’s worth noting a few things about this team.

• All players are in the Top 10 for Luckiest Golfers with two in the Top 5 (Bobby #3, Dickie #5, Denny #9)
• Two players in the Top 6 for Over Performance (Bobby #3, Denny #6)
• Dickie and Bobby are tied for the league lead with six wins by 3 pts or more
• Bobby had a quota of -1 four weeks out of the year and a quota of -1, 0 or +1 for 8 of the 13 weeks played. He’s also never had his quota above a 3 until this coming week.
• Some more perspective on Bobby’s quota: Bobby’s total quota for the entire year so far is equal to an average Flight 1 golfer quota for one week.
  • Dickie is having an ok year in terms of his performance, but luck is on his side when it comes to his wins. Dickie has no wins by 1 or 2 points. All wins are by 3 points or more. If Dickie can take his one point losses (3) and two point losses (2) and turn them into wins or draws, this season could be over much quicker
  • Denny has compiled a good record built on his good performance and good luck. Not much to read into with Denny: Getting lucky and playing well will result in a damn good record.
  • Last but not least is the sensation tearing up the league: Robert “Yeah Baby” Zaleski. Rarely does the combination of great quota performance (aided by super low quotas) and luck combine. When they do, you get a record such as Bob’s at 11-1-1. Unless his luck dries up and his quota starts to rise, Bob will likely smash the TBO record for wins in a season of 14 held by a few people (Sean Mott 2009, Mike Carroll 2010, Nick Wight 2014).