Stat Boy’s 2015 Projections…and yes, its insane

With the new rule changes coming into place (Double Par is -1 pt, Quota only considering your last 4 rounds, Eagles dropping to 6 pts), the IT Nerd wanted to see how this would play out for the 2015 season. Think of it as the Pre-Season polls. I took a players last two seasons for a particular week and averaged them together. So if in Week 1, a player shot a 5 in 2014 and a 7 in 2013 on Hole #1, I would consider them getting a 6 on that hole for 2015.

To help me unveil these scores, I need a little assistance from a big fan of TBO Golf.

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Jim, thanks for taking the time to stop by and chat. Let’s start by looking at the individual players and how they are projected to perform:

Player Quota Pts Pts. % Wins Loses Ties Win % Skins Winnings
Jim Morgan 10 25 69.4% 11 4 3 61.1% 7 84
Joe Donegan 10 25 69.4% 12 5 1 66.7% 10 92
Pat Cregg 8 25 69.4% 11 4 3 61.1% 6 70
Pat Donahue 15 24 66.7% 12 6 0 66.7% 5 66
Bob Zaleski 5 24 66.7% 10 4 4 55.6% 1 18
Brian Thompson 13 24 66.7% 12 6 0 66.7% 6 73
Jack Donegan 13 24 66.7% 11 5 2 61.1% 1 36
Mike Carroll 14 22 61.1% 9 5 4 50.0% 10 95
Devin Carrigan 16 21 58.3% 9 6 3 50.0% 9 137
Matt Lochner 11 21 58.3% 8 5 5 44.4% 1 12
Connor Brown 15 21 58.3% 10 7 1 55.6% 5 57
Bill John 13 20 55.6% 9 7 2 50.0% 6 66
Art Brillanti 5 20 55.6% 9 7 2 50.0% 3 33
Denny Welch 10 19 52.8% 7 6 5 38.9% 9 99
Nick Wight 16 18 50.0% 7 7 4 38.9% 6 73
Dan Mahar 9 18 50.0% 8 8 2 44.4% 1 18
Sean Mott 11 18 50.0% 7 7 4 38.9% 5 96
Marty Donegan 8 18 50.0% 6 6 6 33.3% 1 12
Dale Russell 13 18 50.0% 7 7 4 38.9% 6 103
Vinny Procopio 12 17 47.2% 5 6 7 27.8% 2 25
Gary Thompson 9 17 47.2% 8 9 1 44.4% 7 80
Jon Carroll 13 17 47.2% 7 8 3 38.9% 7 108
Rick Fanto 11 17 47.2% 7 8 3 38.9% 2 21
Tom Phillips 12 16 44.4% 7 9 2 38.9% 6 61
Bob Moran 6 16 44.4% 5 7 6 27.8% 0 0
Dick Donegan 13 15 41.7% 7 10 1 38.9% 2 24
Tom Donegan 7 15 41.7% 6 9 3 33.3% 3 66
Bill Kirkby 4 15 41.7% 6 9 3 33.3% 2 27
Craig Hawkinson 13 15 41.7% 7 10 1 38.9% 4 45
Drew Prucha 10 14 38.9% 5 9 4 27.8% 1 12
TJ Donegan 13 13 36.1% 5 10 3 27.8% 4 48
Chris Donegan 11 13 36.1% 5 10 3 27.8% 3 42
Steve Donegan 13 13 36.1% 5 10 3 27.8% 2 15
Tony Massa 9 11 30.6% 4 11 3 22.2% 1 12
Gary Antos 9 11 30.6% 4 11 3 22.2% 4 60
DJ Mahar 12 8 22.2% 4 14 0 22.2% 2 19

Wow Jim, looks like Jim Morgan had a fantastic year. What are your thoughts on that?

NAntz sandbag

Spot on, Jim. No wonder CBS pays you so well. Now how about the person in second? I believe he’s known as Joey “Jaguar Steelz” Donegan?

Nantz silent

I don’t know what a “Jaguar Steelz” is either Jim, but judging by that look of disbelief I’m guessing that you don’t believe he’ll do as well as projected. History is on your side, Mr. Nantz. Joey has only finished in the Top 10 once, finishing 8th in 2011. But what about those at the bottom? DJ Mahar to finish last? Your immediate reaction, Jim?

nantz stunned

I see you are just as shocked as I am. I find it hard to believe that a past champion who is the caliber player DJ is to struggle that much. Also, Gary Antos at the bottom as well? What comes to mind when you think of a player like Gary?

nantzcalves

That’s quite a smile for you there, Jim. Those thunder-calf muscles really get you going? Before you get too much of a hard-on, let’s take a look at the team projections. Which team is projected to take down the coveted prize?

Team Standings Pts Pts Back Team
Jack Donegan Sean Mott Joe Donegan 80                – 7
Connor Brown Brian Thompson Art Brillanti 78            (2.0) 4
Nick Wight Matt Lochner Bob Zaleski 74            (6.0) 2
Pat Donahue Mike Carroll Bob Moran 70.5            (9.5) 3
Dick Donegan Dale Russell Jim Morgan 67.5          (12.5) 5
TJ Donegan Marty Donegan Pat Cregg 63.5          (16.5) 6
Devin Carrigan Drew Prucha Bill Kirkby 62.5          (17.5) 1
Vinny Procopio Tom Phillips Gary Thompson 60          (20.0) 12
Steve Donegan Rick Fanto Denny Welch 57          (23.0) 9
Bill John Chris Donegan Tom Donegan 55          (25.0) 10
Craig Hawkinson Tony Massa Dan Mahar 49          (31.0) 8
DJ Mahar Jon Carroll Gary Antos 39          (41.0) 11

Just shocking, Jim. The team of Joey, Jack and Dean Mott are projected to take down the prize. What a bold prediction by the Stat Boy. How would you assess their chances of executing on the prediction?

nantz chances

They certainly have a lot of work to do if they want to walk away with the title. Who do you think is actually going to walk away with the title then?

JimNantz-scenes1

Jesus Jim…what a douchebag. We’re talking golf here, not baseball. This isn’t a joke, Jim. If Jon Carroll finishes last, he may drown himself in the creek on #18.

jim_nantz reading

That’s more like it….serious studying of the in-and-outs of Tanner. Nice sweater vest, asshole. All kidding aside Jim, I’d like to thank you for stopping by to help me preview the 2015 TBO Golf season. First beer is on me!

chirkinian

 

 

Here’s the full 2015 file for those interested:

2015 Projections text